SEC Bowl Projections: Urban Liar Edition
by Scott Felts
Really Urban? Really? What was it that healed you? Was it Tebow’s success in the NFL? Was it the fact that once again, he was getting more press than you? Urban doesn’t care about his players. Urban doesn’t care about his teams. Urban sure as hell doesn’t care about his family. He’s a liar and he is as much a cancer in the game of College Football as Lane Kiffin.
Back to the SEC.
Well, Tennessee fans I won’t be including the Vols in my bowl projections, but that doesn’t mean that we can’t care about where other SEC teams are going and who they are playing. Those games and the outcomes of them can affect the Vols’ recruiting, so they should matter to you. After a big weekend for the SEC, let’s look at where the Blazer Chronicles thinks the SEC teams stack up.
Allstate BCS National Championship Game (BCS vs. BCS) – January 9, 2012
Obviously, LSU has to beat Georgia in the SEC CG. The only way Alabama doesn’t make the National Title Game is if Oklahoma State destroys Oklahoma in such a way that voters use that as an excuse to keep two SEC teams out of the title game. I don’t think this can happen, but if people are looking for an excuse, and Oklahoma State wins BIG, some will try it.
LSU vs. Alabama
Allstate Sugar (BCS vs. BCS) – January 3, 2012
Houston vs. Arkansas
If the games were set today, this would be the Sugar Bowl match-up. Houston qualifies because they moved ahead of Boise State, and as the highest ranked non BCS auto-qualifier, the BCS MUST take them. Both teams have a game this week. Boise faces New Mexico in a game they should have NO problem with. Houston faces Southern Miss who is 10-2. If Houston loses, they are out. If Houston struggles and Boise rolls, the Broncos could sneak back ahead and automatically take the Cougars spot. Note though, even if that happens, an undefeated Houston team could make the BCS along with Boise St.
Arkansas WILL drop out of this slot, without even playing. When it comes to selecting at-large teams to fill slots, BCS rules state that the only way three teams from the same conference can play in BCS bowls is if the number one and number two teams in the BCS standings are from the same conference as the third team AND both of those teams are NOT Conference Champions. Obviously either LSU becomes a conference champion and moves into the BCS National Championship, which will drop Arkansas, or LSU loses, and Alabama plays Oklahoma State or Stanford for the title. Either way, the Hogs will not go to a BCS bowl. (This is something I learned this week. I didn’t realize 1 and 2 both had to be non-champions for a third conference team to make it. Now, you have learned something from reading this blog too.)
When this changes, look for Michigan to take on Houston or Boise State in New Orleans.
AT&T Cotton (Big 12 vs. SEC) – January 6, 2012
This is where Arkansas will fall and they will play the team that would have played in the Big Twelve Championship Game against one of the Oklahoma schools, if that conference still played a championship game.
Arkansas vs. Kansas St.
Capital One (Big Ten vs. SEC) – January 2, 2012
This game is generally reserved for the SEC CG loser. This year however, I think that distinction will be hung on the Big Ten representative. Michigan State plays Wisconsin for the Big Ten title. Both of those teams are 10-2 and are low enough in the BCS standings that the loser will drop out of the mandatory top 14 needed to be selected as a BCS at-large.
As for the SEC, if Georgia wins the SEC CG and takes the automatic bid, and Alabama slides to number one and into the National Championship, then the Capital One Bowl will be ALL OVER an LSU team with one loss. I don’t see that happening though. Georgia last played in the Capital One Bowl in 2008. South Carolina has NEVER played in that game. The Capital One committee has some Gator fans on it. Think they might want to see Steve Spurrier? Yea, me too.
South Carolina vs. Michigan State
Outback (Big Ten vs. SEC) – January 2, 2012
The Outback Bowl officials should be very excited about it’s Big Ten selection this season. They will have a chance to have a nationally recognized program in their game that they too have never had the opportunity to select. It’s one of the few positives to the conference re-alignment.
As for the SEC selection, there isn’t much to choose from this year. Only 7 SEC teams that won’t be gobbled up my the BCS are bowl eligible, and for the Outback committee, the decision will be made for them. Bowls can pick teams “out of order” when they have similar records. (Such as Georgia’s predicted 10-3 record vs. South Carolina’s 10-2.) But the Outback Bowl will have whichever of those two teams aren’t selected by the Capital One Bowl because the next best team in the conference is Auburn, who is 7-5. The only way they get a “choice” is if LSU and Arkansas fall to the Capital One/Cotton combination, and then they can choose between South Carolina and Georgia. That won’t happen either though.
Georgia vs. Nebraska
TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl (Big Ten vs. SEC) – January 2, 2012
The Gator Bowl committee is full of Florida Gator supporters. Ohio State just hired Urban Meyer (Who won’t coach in the bowl game), but still. This one picks itself.
Florida vs. Ohio State
Chick-Fil-A Bowl (ACC vs. SEC) – December 31, 2011
Auburn is the next best team in the SEC for the Chik-Fil-A Bowl to select, at 7-5. The ACC Championship game loser usually comes here. That should be Clemson this season. The last two times the Bowl selected these two teams together (after the ’97 and ’07 seasons), these teams played to a 4 point and 3 point overtime contest (Both Auburn wins). The Chik-Fil-A committee loves close games.
Auburn vs. Clemson
Franklin American Mortgage Music City (ACC vs. SEC) – December 30, 2011
The bowl committee is full of people that want fans to travel into the city and spend money. Two SEC teams left to choose from. One is across town, one is in Mississippi. Yeah, this one half picks itself too.
As for the ACC representative, the committee COULD pick the Tar Heels to return to Nashville, OR they could select a team that has NEVER played in their bowl to match up with the SEC team that has NEVER played in their bowl. See a pattern?
Mississippi St. vs. North Carolina St
AutoZone Liberty (C-USA vs. SEC) – December 31, 2011
There is only one SEC team left to pick from, so the Liberty Bowl has it easy there. It will be the bowl’s sixth different SEC team since the bowl tied back in to the SEC. It’s also a team that has NEVER played in the bowl. That should make them happy. Normally the champion of Conference USA plays in this bowl. However, if Houston defeats 10-2 Southern Miss, the Cougars will be in the BCS and Southern Miss would be the second straight 10-3 Conference USA team to play in Memphis. If Southern Miss upsets Houston, I’m not sure if the bowl CAN by-pass the champion to take a 12-1 Houston squad, but if they can, they will. I don’t think they will have to worry about it.
Vanderbilt vs. Southern Mississippi
BBVA Compass Bowl (Big East vs. SEC) – January 6, 2012
Sorry Birmingham…..not enough SEC teams for you. They will select a Sun Belt team to take the SEC slot….ouch.
There ya have it; my SEC Bowl projections as of 9pm on November 28th. This time next week, we will know how right or wrong I am.